European coil import offers have continued to decline in recent months, but may now be close the bottom of the current cycle.
Hot rolled coils from countries such as Turkey and Egypt are currently trading at around €505-515/tonne ($579-591/tonne) cfr Southern Europe, but from the overall market situation, it seems unlikely that further declines will occur.
A trader confirmed that the condition of the Turkish steel mill is still the key, but said that the current price is close to the break-even point. Another trader said that the only possibility for a further decline in coil prices is a new downward trend in scrap, but given the current high demand for scrap, this is unlikely.
Traders commented: “The scrap price is at US$330/ton cfr Turkey. At present, the HRC production cost of steel mills is close to US$520/ton, indicating that the current export price of US$550/ton fob is already the lowest level imaginable.”
One person pointed out that there are rumors that the US tariff on Turkish steel will soon be reduced from 50% to 25%. If the news is confirmed, the market may pick up, otherwise the negative sentiment will continue.
Since the beginning of August, the import price of HRC in Southern Europe has dropped by about 40 Euro/ton, and the prices of hot-dip galvanizing and cold-rolled coils have dropped even more. Turkey has become a major supplier of imported coils in Europe. India's supply has decreased and its competitiveness in terms of price is currently declining.